New Flood Mapping from Oz Maps

New maps have just been posted on the web…

http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/climate/sd_visual.jsp

The maps are from the Federal Govt. and cover sea level rise of 0.5m, 0.8m and 1.1m by 2100, described as Low (unavoidable) Medium (likely with current emissions trends) and High (worst case scenario).

Greg Combet’s press release is here…

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/minister/greg-combet/2010/media-releases/December/mr20101215.aspx

I must point out that the difference between 0.9m and 1.1m is roughly around 10 years (at the rate we expect the sea to be rising when we get to that sort of level). So whether we say 0.9 or 1.1 makes very little difference to the impacts.

Perhaps it would be better described as: 1.1m (or 0.91m, whichever) by somewhere around 2100 to 2110.

The maps specifically show the maximum high tide (expected around once per year). The areas covered include Brisbane to the Gold Coast (a few shocks there!) Sydney to Newcastle (but for some reason Gosford is skipped) and some other capital cities.

The resolution is not quite good enough to pick out all the houses, but it gives a pretty good idea of the potential extent of the tides. Of course, local conditions will impact on the actual inundation and the maps are strictly a “bucket full” approach. This means they just raise the water level without taking account of the wave impacts/erosion or other local hydraulic effects.

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