The Royal Society

 The Royal Society has just published a set of papers in a special edition. The papers consider what the outcomes are likely to be under a 4 degree scenario. This is such a milestone in the science that we have posted all the synopses here. Anyone wanting copies of the papers to peruse in detail, visit http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934.toc (© 2011 The Royal Society) or send email to coolit@cen.org.au.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

[for INTRODUCTION see bottom of page]

ABSTRACTS:

Mark New, Diana Liverman, Heike Schroder, and Kevin Anderson

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:6-19; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0303

The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change commits signatories to preventing ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’, leaving unspecified the level of global warming that is dangerous. In the late 1990s, a limit of 2°C global warming above preindustrial temperature was proposed as a ‘guard rail’ below which most of the dangerous climate impacts could be avoided. The 2009 Copenhagen Accord recognized the scientific view ‘that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius’ despite growing views that this might be too high. At the same time, the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the past decade and the delays in a comprehensive global emissions reduction agreement have made achieving this target extremely difficult, arguably impossible, raising the likelihood of global temperature rises of 3°C or 4°C within this century.

Yet, there are few studies that assess the potential impacts and consequences of a warming of 4°C or greater in a systematic manner. Papers in this themed issue provide an initial picture of the challenges facing a world that warms by 4°C or more, and the difficulties ahead if warming is to be limited to 2°C with any reasonable certainty. Across many sectors—coastal cities, agriculture, water stress, ecosystems, migration—the impacts and adaptation challenges at 4°C will be larger than at 2°C. In some cases, such as farming in sub-Saharan Africa, a +4°C warming could result in the collapse of systems or require transformational adaptation out of systems, as we understand them today. The potential severity of impacts and the behavioural, institutional, societal and economic challenges involved in coping with these impacts argue for renewed efforts to reduce emissions, using all available mechanisms, to minimize the chances of high-end climate change. Yet at the same time, there is a need for accelerated and focused research that improves understanding of how the climate system might behave under a +4°C warming, what the impacts of such changes might be and how best to adapt to what would be unprecedented changes in the world we live in.

Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows

Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:20-44; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0290

The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community’s commitment to ‘hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius’. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C.

Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between ‘dangerous’ and ‘extremely dangerous’ climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

Niel H. A. Bowerman, David J. Frame, Chris Huntingford, Jason A. Lowe, and Myles R. Allen

Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:45-66; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0288

A number of recent studies have found a strong link between peak human-induced global warming and cumulative carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution, while the link to emissions over shorter periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker. However, cumulative targets appear to conflict with the concept of a ‘floor’ in emissions caused by sectors such as food production. Here, we show that the introduction of emissions floors does not reduce the importance of cumulative emissions, but may make some warming targets unachievable. For pathways that give a most likely warming up to about 4°C, cumulative emissions from pre-industrial times to year 2200 correlate strongly with most likely resultant peak warming regardless of the shape of emissions floors used, providing a more natural long-term policy horizon than 2050 or 2100. The maximum rate of CO2-induced warming, which will affect the feasibility and cost of adapting to climate change, is not determined by cumulative emissions but is tightly aligned with peak rates of emissions. Hence, cumulative carbon emissions to 2200 and peak emission rates could provide a clear and simple framework for CO2 mitigation policy.

Richard A. Betts, Matthew Collins, Deborah L. Hemming, Chris D. Jones, Jason A. Lowe, and Michael G. Sanderson

When could global warming reach 4°C?

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:67-84; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with ‘FI’ standing for ‘fossil intensive’. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC’s ‘likely range’.

M. G. Sanderson, D. L. Hemming, and R. A. Betts

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:85-98; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0283

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as ‘high-end’ (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and ‘non-high-end’ simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

Fai Fung, Ana Lopez, and Mark New

Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:99-116; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0293

While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate.

Philip K. Thornton, Peter G. Jones, Polly J. Ericksen, and Andrew J. Challinor

Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:117-136; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0246

Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting challenges, which climate change and increasing climate variability will compound in vulnerable areas. The impacts of a changing climate on agricultural production in a world that warms by 4°C or more are likely to be severe in places. The livelihoods of many croppers and livestock keepers in Africa are associated with diversity of options. The changes in crop and livestock production that are likely to result in a 4°C+ world will diminish the options available to most smallholders. In such a world, current crop and livestock varieties and agricultural practices will often be inadequate, and food security will be more difficult to achieve because of commodity price increases and local production shortfalls. While adaptation strategies exist, considerable institutional and policy support will be needed to implement them successfully on the scale required. Even in the 2°C+ world that appears inevitable, planning for and implementing successful adaptation strategies are critical if agricultural growth in the region is to occur, food security be achieved and household livelihoods be enhanced. As part of this effort, better understanding of the critical thresholds in global and African food systems requires urgent research.

Przemyslaw Zelazowski, Yadvinder Malhi, Chris Huntingford, Stephen Sitch, and Joshua B. Fisher

Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:137-160; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0238

The future of tropical forests has become one of the iconic issues in climate-change science. A number of studies that have explored this subject have tended to focus on the output from one or a few climate models, which work at low spatial resolution, whereas society and conservation-relevant assessment of potential impacts requires a finer scale. This study focuses on the role of climate on the current and future distribution of humid tropical forests (HTFs). We first characterize their contemporary climatological niche using annual rainfall and maximum climatological water stress, which also adequately describe the current distribution of other biomes within the tropics. As a first-order approximation of the potential extent of HTFs in future climate regimes defined by global warming of 2°C and 4°C, we investigate changes in the niche through a combination of climate-change anomaly patterns and higher resolution (5 km) maps of current climatology. The climate anomalies are derived using data from 17 coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our results confirm some risk of forest retreat, especially in eastern Amazonia, Central America and parts of Africa, but also indicate a potential for expansion in other regions, for example around the Congo Basin. The finer spatial scale enabled the depiction of potential resilient and vulnerable zones with practically useful detail. We further refine these estimates by considering the impact of new environmental regimes on plant water demand using the UK Met Office land-surface scheme (of the HadCM3 AOGCM). The CO2-related reduction in plant water demand lowers the risk of die-back and can lead to possible niche expansion in many regions. The analysis presented here focuses primarily on hydrological determinants of HTF extent. We conclude by discussing the role of other factors, notably the physiological effects of higher temperature.

Robert J. Nicholls, Natasha Marinova, Jason A. Lowe, Sally Brown, Pier Vellinga, Diogo de Gusmão, Jochen Hinkel, and Richard S. J. Tol

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:161-181; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0291

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

François Gemenne

Climate-induced population displacements in a 4°C+ world

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:182-195; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0287

Massive population displacements are now regularly presented as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Current forecasts and projections show that regions that would be affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and deltaic regions, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. Such estimates, however, are usually based on a 2°C temperature rise. In the event of a 4°C+ warming, not only is it likely that climate-induced population movements will be more considerable, but also their patterns could be significantly different, as people might react differently to temperature changes that would represent a threat to their very survival. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would affect not only the magnitude of the associated population movements, but also—and above all—the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4°C+ world would require.

 Mark Stafford Smith, Lisa Horrocks, Alex Harvey, and Clive Hamilton

Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:196-216; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0277

With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.

Rachel Warren

The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:217-241; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0271

The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4°C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2°C world. In a 4°C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4°C world. By contrast, a 2°C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth’s forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2°C or a 4°C world.

INTRODUCTION:

Mark New

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:4-5; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0304

The idea of an international symposium focused on ‘Four degrees and beyond’ germinated in late 2008 after discussions with colleagues who were concerned that there was a large gap between the emerging policy target of keeping global warming below two degrees and some of the emissions-reduction scenarios that were being proposed in both the academic and policy literature. Many emissions-policy scenarios had (i) underestimated the rate of increase of emissions in the last decade and (ii) been unrealistically optimistic about when global emissions might peak, given the time it takes to transition out of carbon-based energy systems. A pessimistic, or some might say realistic, appraisal of the slow progress of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, also suggested that avoiding two degrees would be highly unlikely, and that the chances of warming by four degrees in this century much less unlikely than previously thought. At the same time, the Oxford-based author Mark Lynas had just published his book ‘Six degrees: our future on a hotter planet’, and he had often commented on the scarcity of any scientific literature on the nature and impacts of climate changes larger than four degrees.

So, the Four degrees and beyond conference took place in September 2009, where we asked participants to specifically address the questions of (i) how probable a warming of four degrees or higher might be, (ii) what the consequences of such a warming might be for ecosystems and society, (iii) how to adapt to such large changes, and (iv) how to keep the risk of high-end climate change as low as possible.

The papers in this Theme Issue were written by participants in the Four degrees conference, at the invitation of the editors. In many cases, authors were asked to combine their separate conference contributions into a joint paper synthesizing multiple viewpoints and results. We appreciate their enthusiasm in taking on this challenge.

Now, as we go to press with the Theme Issue a year on from the conference, the results of the research presented in its papers seem even more relevant than a year ago. We have no comprehensive climate-change ‘deal’, and Yvo de Boer, in his final remarks as head of the UNFCCC before stepping down in 2010, said that it could take up to 10 years for negotiations to deliver a robust and effective agreement. Voluntary and non-nation state emissions-reduction commitments might give us some breathing space, but still take us closer to four degrees than is comfortable. The papers in this issue that look at impacts and adaptation challenges in a four degrees world are sobering: the possible impacts are large, in some cases, transformational, and the challenges in understanding and developing responses to these impacts considerable. Hopefully, this Theme Issue will stimulate much-needed further research that explores the implications of and solutions to high-end climate warming.

The Four degrees conference would not have been possible without financial support from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute. Similarly, Maria Mansfield was invaluable, first as conference organizer, and then as editorial assistant for the Themed Issue. My co-editors Diana Liverman, Richard Betts, Kevin Anderson and Chris West valiantly shared the load in reviewing papers, chasing revisions and making final recommendations. Lastly, thanks are due to all those who contributed to the Four degrees conference, the Editor of Philosophical Transactions A for agreeing to the idea of this Themed Issue, and Suzanne Abbot, Publishing Editor, for her support and patience throughout.

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