New Paper on Ice Melt

Proven- we are losing 148 Gt/yr from ice melt. Mostly from the two polar ice caps. 10 years of such losses would make more than 1.8m depth if all the melt water was spread over the land area of NSW.

The paper in Nature is based on the Grace satelites that measure changes in the mass of the Earth’s surface and provides new evidence that West Antarctica is shedding ice mass.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.html#/t1
http://summitcountyvoice.com/2012/02/09/global-warming-cu-led-study-pinpoints-earths-ice-loss/

Half the sea level rise noted this last ten years has come from melting land ice. The remainder is mostly from the increase in temperature of the oceans with some from other minor sources.

The ocean absorbs the majority of the additional heat trapped in our atmosphere. If all that heat remained in the atmosphere it would be very difficult to live on this planet as the temperature would vary much more than it does under the normal influence of variations in solar input, volcanoes, etc. The ocean acts as a massive absorber to moderate the climate.

Unfortunately, once the ocean warms enough, we create huge inertia for change with increased energy in the system. Such increased warmth will impact on all coastal regions. For example, the coasts of Antarctica will be washed with warmer waters that will drive ongoing melting of the ice caps. Warmer waters in the Arctic Ocean will melt permafrost around Siberia and northern Canada leading to release of further greenhouse gases CO2 and Methane.

Once begun, these processes will not stop until we return the planets energy balance to pre-holocene levels. If fact it is extremely difficult to envisage the human race being able to achieve such re-balancing at all. So we face changes that will be out of our control and continuing for centuries or millenia into the future.

It has for some time been critical for the planets future for us to urgently and on an emergency basis eliminate our use of fossil fuels. The remaining stocks of fossil energy must be left in the ground.

Handling the Heat

Handling the Heat: Research for adaptation in Central Coast and Hunter

The NCCARF (National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility) held a 1 day seminar on 23 Nov 2011 at Newcastle Uni, Callaghan Campus. The aim was to discuss the ways in which the Central Coast and the Hunter Regions can adapt to the impacts of Climate Change.

Local impacts are becoming better defined. For example, the report last July from NSW Govt:- NSW Climate Impact Profile details impacts by region around NSW. One disturbing outcome for the Central Coast area is an increase in runoff depths of up to 28% (34% in Sydney). This results from an expected increase in summer rainfall although winter/spring rain will reduce. Essentially this means more big storms with heavy rain and flooding in the summer but dryer springs when the farmers are trying to sow their crops.

Other predictions include increased evaporation and higher temperatures (of course) and more extensive and hotter bushfires.

We all know that its getting hotter. Over recent years we have seen increasing natural disasters with horific floods, intense droughts/heat waves and larger/stronger storm events including cyclones.

So, what can we do to prepare ourselves for this future?

We must remain aware of the unfolding science regarding the impacts. We must monitor our politicians efforts to reduce GHG pollution. And we must plan for the worst. I say the worst because every time the IPCC issue a new report, they up the anti. Each successive scientific paper unfolds for us that the situation is worse than it was before.

With the Federal Government’s carbon price to be set in place this June, the focus appears to be moving towards the international stage and away from what Australia is doing (or not doing) to reduce emissions. But the targets set so far are not sufficient to remove Australia from the top of the list of emitters (per head). We will have to do more.

We will also have to focus on what pressure we can bring to other countries to reduce their emissions. USA, China and the emerging giants of India, Brazil, etc. have to do a lot more. So far the world is heading for disaster – a slow decent into climate chaos. We must find it in our hearts in this decade, to significantly wind back our fossil fuel dependance, world wide.

We cannot do this without focusing on the businesses that are supporting this. We hear today about Gina Reinhart buying a 14% share in Fairfax, the media company that stands in oposition to the Murdock press in Australia. Those who think she will not influence the choice of editors, or the political flavour of the Fairfax papers are deluding themselves.

We cannot back off now. This decade is the critical moment in history for keeping our planets climate in a reasonable balance. We must do this for our children, grandchildren and all the other species on this planet.

The Permafrost Trigger

(Returning after a short break from posting)

There have recently been a few studies showing that permafrost is melting and that large amounts of CO2 and methane (CH4) are being released. Reports of melting of arctic sea floor clathrates (methane) are also on the web. Jim Hansen has described this potential climate feedback as the ‘Methane Gun’. Fossil fuel emissions are the trigger.

An article was published in Nature on the 1st December setting out what 41 scientists think will happen to our permafrost. These people study various aspects of permafrost. They were asked to put a figure on emissions of CO2 and CH4 for four warming scenarios through the next 300 years. The main points from the article include…

“The lowest warming scenario projects 1.5 C arctic warming (above the 1985-2004 average) by 2040 ramping up to 2 C by 2100; the highest warming scenario considers 2.5 C by 2040 and 7.5 C by 2100. In all cases the temperature would remain steady from 2100 to 2300 so that we could assess opinions about the time lag in the response of permafrost carbon to temperature.

…the highest warming scenario will degrade 9-15% of the top 3m of permafrost by 2040, increasing to 47-61% by 2100 and 67-79% by 2300 (95% confidence intervals). The estimated carbon release from this degradation is 30 to 63 billion tonnes by 2040, reaching 232 to 380 billion tonnes by 2100 and 549 to 865 billion tonnes by 2300. These values, expressed in CO2 equivalents, combine the effect of carbon released as both CO2 and CH4 (methane).

Our estimate for the amount of carbon released by 2100 is 1.7 – 5.2 times larger than those reported in several recent modelling studies, all of which used a similar warming scenario. This reflects in part our percieved importance of abrupt thaw processes as well as our heightened awareness of deep carbon pools.

Across all of the warming scenarios, we project that most of the released carbon will be in the form of CO2 with only about 2.7% in the form of CH4. However, because CH4 has a higher global warming potential almost half of the effect of future permafrost zone carbon emissions on climate forcing is likely to be from CH4. That is roughly consistant with the tens of billions of tonnes of CH4 thought to have come from oxygen-limited environments in northern eco-systems after the end of the last glacial period.

All this points towards significant carbon releases from permafrost zone soils over policy-relevant timescales. It also highlights important lags whereby permafrost degradation and carbon emissions are expected to continue for decades or centuries after global temperatures stabilize at new higher levels.

…once the soil thaws, emissions are likely to continue for decades, or even centuries.

…our survey outlines the additional risk to society caused by thawing of the frozen north and underscores the urgent need to reduce atmospheric emissions from fossil fuel use and deforestation.”

A very worrying report on all accounts. Especially when one realises that the lowest scenario of 1.5 C of arctic warming is virtually certain to be much too low. Recent arctic temperatures have been well beyond this figure already.

For more see… http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/12/01/379675/nature-climate-experts-thawing-permafrost-warming-of-deforestation/ 

and http://www.labspaces.net/115609/Video__Abrupt_permafrost_thaw_increases_climate_threat 

and http://planet3.org/2011/12/01/climate-change-high-risk-of-permafrost-thaw/

More Photos

The Entrance, Moving Planet, 24th Sept 2011

Moving Planet, The Entrance

Rachel reports on a great day at The Entrance

Picnic Point at The Entrance, NSW  was the perfect setting for our ‘Moving Planet’ day. With more than 2000 events in 175 countries around the world, Moving Planet is about demanding clean energy for a fossil fuel free future.

A gathering of more than a hundred people came together at The Entrance to call for action on climate change and more sustainable transport options for the central coast.  The crowd listened to local GP, Dr Ian Charlton who described the health benefits of public transport. He described a plan for how the Central Coast could be better served with a network of buses circling the major waterways. 

Undaunted by the weather and entertained by local musician and activist Jake Cassar, the gathering formed a large circle on the nearby oval, joining hands and dancing in a circle to show that we can play a part in taking action.

We call on our local, state and federal governments to move towards a sustainable, clean energy future. Too long have we waited for urgent action on climate change, lets get Moving for the Planet’s future.

Lots of Thanks to everyone from Climate Future (of CEN) and the Australian Youth Climate Coalition and all our friends who helped get this day on the road.

Moving Planet, The Entrance – Sat 24th Sept

Moving Planet, The Entrance, Central Coast – Sat. 24th Sept 2011

In keeping with Moving Planet day on 24th September 2011, Climate Future (cen.org.au) and Australian Youth Climate Coalition (aycc.org.au) are holding an event at Picnic Point, The Entrance.

COMMENT to Govt on Clean Energy Legislative Package

22 August 2011

Carbon Price Legislation Branch

Carbon Strategy and Markets Division

Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

GPO Box 854, CANBERRA ACT 2601

Comment on Draft Exposure of: Clean Energy Legislative Package

Dear Carbon Price Legislation Branch

Thank you for the opportunity to comment on the draft Clean Energy Package of legislation. My family and I are very concerned about the urgency of the climate change crisis and the need for urgent action to safeguard the future for our descendants. We include the following comment.

General:

Given that Australia:

a)      is the highest per capita emitter (developed nations)

b)    fossil fuel use has increased of the order of 50% since 1990 with no indication this will slow down

c)     latest scientific projections are nearer 4 to 6 degrees C by 2100

d)    latest scientific papers indicate methane release from tundra and arctic sea bed may be out of control within 20 years 

In our opinion therefore, the target for 2050 must be set at 80% to 95%. This target would be more in keeping with the need to avoid dangerous climate change.